domingo, septiembre 20, 2009

El ciclo de precios de los arándanos en EEUU

Interesante hipótesis sobre el ciclo de precios de los arándanos en los últimos años en EEUU. El autor Tom Bradley en su nota The Cyclical Blues aparecida en BCBusiness online abre el debate y defiende la posición de que la cadena tiene un ciclo económico que no es diferente al de los commodities, los microprocesadores y otros. Aqui abajo parte de la nota

BCBusiness Online
What investors can learn from blueberry farmers.
When it comes to investing, the phrase “It’s different this time” usually proves to be wrong because cyclical forces invariably win out. Yet surprisingly few investors know that economic and market cycles exist, or how they work.
In the June edition of BCBusiness, Allen Garr’s article on blueberries (“Kind of Blue”) describes the vicious cycle B.C. farmers are experiencing. Besides the fact that I love blueberries (as a kid I picked them with my mother) and everything they’re in (pies, muffins, pancakes, smoothies, cereal) the article grabbed my attention because it’s a classic example of a cycle.
Borrowing facts from the article, here is how what I’ll dub “The Great Blueberry Cycle” plays
• Farmers are paid around $0.70 a pound for their blueberries.
• Blueberries are declared one of the world’s 10 wonder foods, and the “health halo” causes demand to take off.
• Rising demand plus short-term supply limitations equal higher prices: in 2006 farmers are paid $1.60 a pound.
• Blueberry farmers around the world increase production and less-profitable crops are plowed under. Between 2005 and 2009, North American farmland dedicated to blueberries increases 30 per cent.
• Anticipating further growth, speculators get into the act by buying and planting land in the Fraser Valley; prices for farmland go up.
• While the impact of recent planting is just starting to be felt, production is expected to keep rising for several more years, since it takes three years for plants to produce a blueberry and 10 to reach full production. Meanwhile, storage facilities for fresh and frozen blueberries are bursting at the seams.
• Prices pull back to $1.00 in 2008 and are expected to be $0.70 in 2009.
• Farmers are struggling to make a living. Production costs have risen while prices are back to where they were a few years.
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Fuente BCBusiness online

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